نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 دانش آموخته دکتری مدیریت آینده پژوهی دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملی، تهران، ایران
2 استاد معارف اسلامی و مدیریت دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)، تهران، ایران
3 دانشیار مدیریت دانشگاه جامع امام حسین، تهران، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Using the capacity of one of the applied methods of futurology, the present article evaluates and signifies the importance of the most important shaping factors in a new civilization in four analytical layers after identifying them. Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is recognized as an effective method to provide multilayer analysis of a phenomenon or issue. In this scientific endeavor, seventeen representatives of civilization were identified using the study of the background of the topics in the field of civilization and the expert panel. The identified reagents were then divided into four levels of realities, systems, discourses and myths using the capabilities of the layer analysis method of causes. A questionnaire was designed based on this and experts were asked to evaluate the importance and position of each representative of civilization in different layers. The most important representatives of civilization in each layer were then identified by analyzing the opinions of the experts. The findings indicate that on the level of realities, two representatives of civilization ‘rituals, behaviors and symbols’ and ‘languages, rituals and customs’ represent civilization at a level of the social system (systems and structures of governance and management – state and society administrative systems); at the level of discourses, there are two references of civilization: ‘a system of ideals and goals and a system of functions’ and ‘a collection of sciences and educations (theoretical logic)’. At the level of myths, the references of civilization (role models) are more important and should be given special attention by the country's management strategies.